Talent Pool

Prior to the start of the 2011-2012 college basketball season, I suggested that with all the returning and incoming (I warned you about Anthony Davis) talent, we'd see a spike in overall play, setting up what could be the most competitive season we've seen in a handful of years. The likes of Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones III, Terrence Jones, and others made some headlines when a return to college -- likely fueled by the looming NBA lock-out -- meant the cream of the crop wouldn't experience much (if any) drop-off from the year before. Early on, all the talk was about North Carolina and Kentucky, two teams with more NBA talent on paper than any two teams in a single season, perhaps ever. Then Ohio State and Missouri joined the club ... and then Baylor ... and Michigan State went on a big run ... Kansas rounded into form, and so on. Well, to illustrate this point, let's just take a look at the teams that will potentially make up the top 8 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, focusing first on those that comprised last year's group, shall we?



Look at last year's top 8 seeds in the NCAA Tournament:

1 - Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Pittsburgh
2 - North Carolina, Notre Dame, San Diego State, Florida

Everyone thought Ohio State and Kansas were legit, sure, but there were flaws even on the top line, as Pittsburgh was easily the weakest 1 seed out there, and many said the weakest in a number of years. Coincidence that they didn't even get out of the second round (8th-seeded Butler clipped them)? People suggested that Duke was overrated, lacked the athleticism to defend and a true scoring wing to do any damage in the tournament. They got destroyed by Derrick Williams and the 6th-seeded Arizona Wildcats in the Sweet 16.

The #2 seeds inspired a standard "blah" reaction from many. North Carolina got hot in the ACC Tournament, but didn't look like a championship caliber team prior to that one-week period. Notre Dame? Did anyone honestly expect them to do damage in the tournament? They ended up getting housed in round 2 by 10th-seeded Florida State. San Diego State? Wasn't that just a one-man team featuring Kawai Leonard? They lost in the Sweet 16 to eventual champion UConn, but merely had to beat Northern Colorado and Temple to get there in the first place. That brings me to Florida. The team that got embarrassed in the SEC Tournament by Kentucky on Selection Sunday, which was their second loss to UK in a month, yet ended up with a #2 seed while Kentucky was dealt a #4 seed. I could go on, including a note that BYU was a #3 seed while playing without its one and only post player (in the same region as Pitt and Florida, no less ... WTF?), but you get the point.

Bottom line, after Ohio State and Kansas, none of the other 1-2 seeds entering the tournament jumped out as a team that could win it all. The two hottest teams in the entire field were Kentucky (4 seed, that knocked off Ohio State and North Carolina) and Connecticut (9-9 in Big East play, but won the Big East Tournament by winning something like 5 games in 5 days).



That said, here's a look at the potential top 8 seeds in this year's NCAA Tournament (in some combination - lots of key games left to play, but this should represent the top 8):

Syracuse
Kentucky
Duke
Michigan State
Missouri
Kansas
North Carolina
Ohio State

Note, that doesn't include the likes of Marquette, Baylor, Georgetown, Florida or Michigan, all teams in the top 15 that people are circling as dark-horse Final Four threats who could sneak into a 2 seed by, for example, winning out from this point forward (with a little help from others listed above). Point being, this year's field is loaded; each of the teams listed above have a potential argument for a #1 seed. The top tier of teams seeded 1 and 2 will be the types of teams that won't surprise anyone if they win the whole darn thing. Could you say the same last year? Even on the 2-line? I don't think so.

I'm not suggesting we won't get another Butler or VCU this year, but I don't see it as likely as last year, given the depth of the top tier versus last year. But keep your eyes on, say, Wichita State.