
[Get ready for the jinx ...]
Each week I post the AP polls for college football and basketball. Often, I disagree with a few of rankings and believe certain teams should be higher than others. Prior to this week's AP poll being released for college basketball, here's what I put together as far as what the top 10 would look like if the G2 were given an official ballot:
01. Baylor (17-0) - I am sure most will agree with this if they collect a road win at Phog Allen tonight, where the Bears are 7-point underdogs, but to me, their resume warrants a number one ranking as of today. After all, rankings are what you believe a team should be ranked right now, not what they'll be at the end of the season. They've won at Northwestern by 28 points (where Sparty just lost), at BYU by 26 points, St. Mary's, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, at Kansas State, and just beat Oklahoma State by nearly 50 points in a televised beat-down.
02. Syracuse (19-0) - really talented, and I expect them to collect a number one seed in March, but thus far they have been relatively untested for the most part ... their resume shows wins over Florida and Marquette at home. Given the Big East's performance this season, it isn't unreasonable to think Syracuse will only lose 1-2 games in the regular season.
03. Kentucky (17-1) - arguably the most talented team in the country, many have said this is Calipari's best shot at cutting down the nets; frankly, I disagree. Not suggesting they won't do it, but the competition in the top-tier (thanks to a lot of individual talent that stayed in school), combined with an overall lack of depth (they can really only go 6-7 deep w/ any confidence) suggests to me that it'll still be a major accomplishment to get to the Final Four, as opposed to an expectation. The offense has not looked fluid lately, but it didn't at this point last year, either. After a 1-5 start on the road last year, the Wildcats are 2-0 this year, scratching out a comeback win in Knoxville this past weekend. Resume includes wins over North Carolina and Louisville at home, and Kansas on a neutral court. Their only loss is ... well, you already know. Big test comes Saturday when they take on an improving Alabama squad.
04. Ohio State (16-3) - three road losses (Kansas - without Sullinger, IU, Illinois) don't scare me away from the Buckeyes that much, to be honest. They just blew IU's doors off yesterday, and I expect them to do the same to Illinois when they host them later this season. The talent is there, so long as Thad Matta doesn't over-coach them. The Buckeyes have wins over Florida and Duke at home, but need to collect a few road wins; that said, they only go to Nebraska and Wisconsin prior to Valentine's Day.
05. Missouri (16-1) - I like this team a lot, and they are a Final Four contender for sure, but in terms of ranking them ahead of OSU, I can't do it just yet; they got worked at Kansas State, and other than a win over Illinois on a neutral court, their resume doesn't jump out at you like some of the others in the top tier. Ricardo Ratliffe, Marcus Denmon, and Phil Pressey make for a great trio, and they run like crazy, but an overall lack of size (no contributor over 6'8") could cost them in March.
06. Duke (15-2) - I am certain the actual AP poll will have the Blue Devils at 4, but I have not been convinced based on watching them 5-6 times this season. Their resume shows neutral court wins over Michigan State (Coach K's big night), Kansas, and Washington, but they got dominated in Columbus in what looked like a mis-match, athletically speaking. This Duke team has several flaws that will likely get exposed in March - no post play not named Plumlee, no reliable point guard, Austin Rivers has been a mess, and they don't have a slashing wing scorer (see Gerald Henderson). Who gets the ball when they need a clutch basket? That said, they are winning games, and are in contention for a number one seed.
07. North Carolina (15-3) - the Tar Heels have lost to UNLV (in Vegas), Kentucky (at Rupp), and Florida State (in Tallahassee), with wins over Michigan State (on an aircraft carrier) and Wisconsin. Their resume doesn't blow you away, but their pure talent does ... at least on paper. The epic failure of a performance against FSU over the weekend is cause for some concern - no team that talented should ever lose a basketball game, regardless of location or opponent, by 30+ points, even on a bad day where shots aren't falling. If they don't win the next 5 games before Duke rolls into town, there is a problem.
08. Kansas (14-3) - this team is on a roll since losing to Davidson -- 7 in a row, though only Kansas State registers to me all that much -- and might find themselves ranked higher than UNC in the actual poll, but my ranking is based on what I believe would happen on a neutral court (in other words, I think UNC beats KU). Thomas Robinson is either the front runner or runner-up for Player of the Year at this stage. The Jayhawks get Baylor at home tonight, thus an opportunity to remind everyone that they are lurking. Bill Self has done a nice job with this team, given what they lost (3 NBA draft picks), and the fact that a couple of recruits were deemed ineligible before the season started.
09. Michigan State (15-3) - the Spartans' 15-game win streak ended at Northwestern this past weekend, and it doesn't get much easier for Izzo's crew as they travel to Ann Arbor. Draymond Green has played like an All-American at times, but he needs a little more help for Sparty to be a realistic contender. They have an impressive home win over IU (80-65, but it was much closer than the score indicates), and a road win at Wisconsin (which is starting to look a little less impressive as the season rolls on - not your brother's Wisconsin squad), but need to win either at Michigan or at Illinois here in the second half of January to solidify their positioning.
10a. Indiana (15-3) - rough week for the Hoosiers with back-to-back losses to Minnesota (at Assembly Hall, where I didn't think they'd lose all season, especially to Tubby's 0-4 Gophers) and a revenge-minded Ohio State in Columbus (game wasn't even close to the 17-point margin of defeat). They can get some confidence back, though, as they travel to Nebraska (which sucks) and return home to host Penn State - a team that gave them a run in their gym, but should get beaten up in Assembly. Overall, the resume still includes those wins over Kentucky and Ohio State at home, and those will carry a lot of weight when the Committee meets (UK more so than OSU, since OSU neutralized that win on Sunday). When IU is hitting threes, they can beat anyone; when they're not, anyone in the top 30-35 can beat them.
10b. Georgetown (14-3) - the Hoyas dropped back-to-back games to West Virginia and Cincinnati prior to getting back in the winning column at St. John's yesterday, but still feature a solid resume with two wins over Memphis, Marquette, and road wins at Alabama and Louisville. On a neutral court, I believe Vegas would make a game between the Hoosiers and the Hoyas damn-near a pick'em, and that's why they share the 10th spot in my poll as of today. The trio of Jason Clark, Hollis Thompson, and freshman Otto Porter are a nice nucleus for JT-III to work with this season.
2 comments:
Knew the jinx would apply. That said, KU was favored by 7 and nobody wins at Phog Allen. But they smacked them around; Baylor looked uncomfortable. Updated rankings:
01. Cuse
02. Kentucky
03. Baylor
04. Ohio State
05. Mizzou
06. Duke
07. Kansas
08. North Carolina
09. Michigan State
10. IU / Gtown
IU pretty much has to win out to sniff the top 10 again this year. Nice effort lately, boys. National championships are won in March/April, not December - just for future reference.
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