A Dead Rivalry Revived?This past week has been eye opening, as scores of Indiana Hoosiers fans have been scurrying out from the rocks they’ve been hiding under for the past 3-4 seasons. Without question, this is the biggest game for IU basketball in the last 10 years. For Kentucky? The biggest game in the past week (note: they haven’t played yet this week). If this past week has done anything, it has reminded me just how much IU fans despise Kentucky, its fan base, and John Calipari. All it took was an 8-0 start by beating up on the likes of Savannah State, Gardner-Webb, Stetson, Evansville, and sub-par NC State and Butler squads for Hoosier Nation to come out in full force, spewing hate and making more personal attacks than a political primary. I get it, IU fans; you have a much-improved team this year. Granted, it has taken four seasons to get there (and I don’t care what you say, that is a long time for college basketball when one player can turn your program around overnight), but you’d think IU basketball was not only relevant (it hasn’t been), but elite the last few seasons given the way some of these fans have been acting this week. Outside of one fluke run through the NCAA tournament under Mike Davis in the early 00’s (face it, Mike Davis was the coach, it had to be a fluke), the Hoosiers haven’t been relevant to college basketball on a national level since the Clinton Administration. Frankly, Kentucky has dominated this series so much (17-4 since 1990) that UK fans don’t really consider it much of a rivalry these days. It falls far behind Louisville, and a notch below Florida, Tennessee, Duke and North Carolina, if you were to poll the Big Blue Nation. That said, the “rivalry” is ready for a re-birth of sorts, as the nation’s #1-ranked Kentucky Wildcats travel to Assembly Hall to battle the Hoosiers at 5:15pm ET tomorrow on ESPN.
Venue Can Be EverythingOn paper, and based on sheer talent, Kentucky should win this game by double digits. It wouldn’t even be close at Rupp Arena, and likely the same on a neutral court. But that’s the beauty of college basketball – home court advantage is simply impossible to discredit, especially when the home team’s fan base will be treating this particular match-up like the program-changing moment it has been waiting for the last 3-4 years. Anyone who tries to suggest this isn’t IU’s “Super Bowl” or “national championship” is being silly. Just look at all of the promotions (“Red Out,” students camping out, t-shirts being made for fans, etc.) leading up to tomorrow’s game. The fact that this game is being played at Assembly Hall is the *only* reason people think it will be a contest. Multiple talking heads think this is the “Upset Watch” game of the week, and even yours truly has predicted a close game for weeks (even before IU waltzed its way into an 8-0 stroll through Cupcake City). Combine that with the fact that this is a very young Kentucky team’s first true road game, coming off an intensely emotional battle with North Carolina, and you have all the makings of a let-down performance for Kentucky. IU rushed the court and partied in the lobby of Assembly Hall after beating NIT-bound and unranked Minnesota two years ago (to me, that was one of the saddest things to witness for a once elite program), and Illinois last year, so God only knows what they might do if they take down the nation’s top-ranked team this Saturday … probably cancel final exams for the semester or something.
MatchupsMarquis Teague v. Verdell Jones – depending on who has the hot hand for IU’s backcourt tandem early on, you could see these first two become interchangeable, but I expect to see Teague matched up with Jones from the opening tip. Jones has been plagued by two things for much of his career at IU: poor shot selection and foul trouble. Will Marquis Teague exploit the latter, by attempting to take his man off the dribble to get into the lane? It is one of his strongest assets, but one we haven’t seen that much of this season, likely due to the talent around him and Calipari’s desire to see Teague set up his teammates for good scoring opportunities. Teague could very well be the key to the game for Kentucky – how he handles the hostile environment in his homecoming after choosing to leave the state for a hated rival will greatly impact the pace and flow of the game. I expect to see Teague matched up with Hulls for more of the game, in terms of overall minutes, since Hulls slides over to the point guard slot when Verdell Jones takes a seat and Sheehey comes in off the bench for more scoring punch on the wings.
Doron Lamb v. Jordy Hulls – these two shooting guards are their respective teams’ best options on the perimeter, with Hulls scorching the nets at 50%+ this season from downtown, and Lamb hitting at 40%+ for the second straight season. It’s no coincidence that both are their teams’ top options at the free throw line, as well. Both are capable of being the leading scorer on any given night, depending on their ability to get open off screens. Athletically, Lamb holds a major advantage, so it will be a task for Hulls to find his spots, and his teammates to provide him with some open looks.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist v. Victor Oladipo – this match-up features each teams’ emotional sparkplug players. Oladipo is as athletic as anyone in the gym, with an improved shot from last season, but he’ll have his hands full on the offensive end as he will be guarded by the taller, more gifted Kidd-Gilchrist, who was lauded as the nation’s top recruit for a couple of years primarily for his work on the defensive side of the ball, having a constant motor. Fewer players in the country will hustle more than Kidd-Gilchrist, and I’m not sure anyone can match his desire to win. On paper, this is a major mis-match in factor of the Wildcats.
Terrence Jones v. Christian Watford – intriguing match-up here, in that both (noticing a trend here) are inside-out threats for their respective teams, and both seem to float a bit too much on the perimeter at times, thinking they are shooting guards locked into power forwards’ bodies. If Indiana wants to pull the upset (or, if you’re Dan Dakich, the expected outcome …), it will need Watford to go to work on the glass with Zeller. These two had a nice battle at Rupp last year, and I expect much of the same this year. When Watford is locked in, he can be a bad mo’fo. Jones had a monster first half against UNC last weekend (14 points), but didn’t score a single point in the second half, instead focusing on defense, rebounding, and setting up his teammates. If Jones settles for the outside shot, IU should be licking their chops. Jones belongs on the blocks, using his 250lb frame to body up his defender, but he hasn’t fully realized that just yet.
Anthony Davis v. Cody Zeller – the match-up most want to so, as two freshmen will battle in the post for the majority of the game. Davis was the nation’s top recruit, and Zeller was not too far behind (though he would rank fourth overall in this game’s freshmen ranking behind Davis, Gilchrist, and Teague), as a top 20 recruit by most services. Zeller has been asked to do a lot more for the Hoosiers thus far, by comparison, as Davis has been finding his niche on the defensive side of the ball, averaging over 4 blocks per contest. Davis tends to disappear on the offensive end, but then a high-flying alley-oop from a teammate will remind you of his presence. He wasn’t expected to display a vast array of post moves for the Wildcats this year, unlike his counterpart for the Hoosiers. Both big men run the floor exceptionally well for 6’10”-6’11” athletes, too. Two keys here will be (a) how Zeller handles Davis’s absurd length, and (b) whether Zeller can pick up a quick foul – preferably two, if you’re an IU fan – on Davis, something his older brother was not able to do last weekend.
BenchDarius Miller, Kyle Wiltjer, Eloy Vargas v. Will Sheehey, Matt Roth / Daniel Moore (aren’t they the same person?), Derek Elston, Remy Abell. You won’t see UK go beyond those three, but their top 7 are as deep as any 7 in America. Miller is essentially a sixth starter, and Wiltjer was a consensus top 25 recruit from the 2011 class. Eloy Vargas has improved from a year ago, when he was essentially useless, now forming into the role player that many hoped he would be last year – a big body who can position himself in the paint as a defensive presence and grab rebounds. He isn’t much of a shot-blocker (no vertical), and he is a non-factor on the offensive end, aside from a rare tip-in off the glass. IU’s bench is anchored by Sheehey, an energetic sophomore who possesses some swagger and the ability to score off the dribble. I’m not sure how much we’ll really see out of Roth, Elston (sources indicate a potential back issue that might keep him out of this one), or the freshman from Louisville, but the bench play is not nearly as significant as how the starters handle one another, unless foul trouble becomes an issue. If UK’s guards get in foul trouble, the bench is a problem (there is no true back-up PG until transfer Twany Beckham becomes eligible in a couple of weeks; until then, you’ll see a lot of Doron Lamb running the point when Teague is out, which is unnatural for him); on the flip side, if Zeller gets in foul trouble, the bench is a problem for the Hoosiers (do we really want to go down the Tom Pritchard path again?).
Keys to the GameIndiana
1. Continue to shoot well from downtown (currently 44% as a team), relying on the familiarity of Assembly Hall, where they’ve played 6 of 8 games this season. The three-point shot is the ultimate neutralizer in college basketball. Without it, you wouldn’t have nearly as many upsets, as the bigger, more athletic team would almost always exploit those advantages and come out on top.
2. Force Kentucky into perimeter shots, especially from Teague and Jones. Both players have a tendency to like the open look from long range a bit too much for their particular skill sets – if you’re IU, you’ll take your chances with these two firing away from downtown. In the same breath, make sure you follow Doron Lamb around designed curls, because he doesn’t miss very often when he gets a clean look at the basket.
3. Deny the lob pass to Anthony Davis … to the extent this is even possible. In addition to being an instant bucket, it is an energy boost for the Wildcats.
4. Come out swinging from the opening tip. With it being UK’s first road game, it will be hard enough to counter the hostile crowd and vastly different environment; if you force them to do it while playing from behind early, you might be able to get this young squad to force the issue and dig a hole for themselves, which will only fuel the crowd that much more.
Kentucky1. Avoid foul trouble. It is no secret that home court advantages in collegiate sports – especially basketball – often come accompanied by a friendly whistle or two along the way. UK has yet to encounter any significant foul trouble through its first 8 games, so it is yet to be determined how they’ll react to losing Lamb (their primary shooting weapon), or Davis (their defensive game-changer), for example, for significant time. Calipari has sat Teague and Jones down at times due to erratic play, so that’s somewhat of a known element at this point.
2. Go to work inside. Given the youth of this team, it isn’t shocking that they’ve yet to truly figure out their strengths. All five players on the floor are scoring threats, but notably, all five can put it on the floor and get to the rim – even Davis, who used to be a guard. As noted above, they tend to fall in love with the 3-pt shot at times, and you can shoot your way out of a game if you get carried away or try to get in a tit-for-tat shooting contest with the home team instead of doing what you do best.
3. Exploit the mismatches that Kidd-Gilchrist and Miller will generate. Regardless of who IU puts on these two, it will be a mis-match. They rotate at the small forward position, but possess the size (6’7” for Gilchrist, 6’8” for Miller) and quickness to take advantage of their defenders – as evident against UNC last weekend. Gilchrist is one of the best slashers around, but you’ll see him take long jumpers (his one glaring weakness), and Miller is an inside-out threat who thrives on backing his man down and putting up a short floater in the lane, which is nearly impossible to defend without help from another player, ultimately leaving someone open underneath or on the perimeter for a good look outside.
4. Make free throws. Plain and simple, this team is awful from the free throw line this season, outside of Doron Lamb. I have said it many times – sooner or later, UK will lose a game they shouldn’t simply because they miss too many free throws (a staple of Calipari teams over the years). Teague is around 54% which is unacceptable for your point guard, and Davis is not much better, which is surprising given his stroke and the fact that he used to be a 6’2” guard. Terrence Jones’s free throw struggles are well-documented (putting up an 0-fer in the Final Four, anyone?), but he is improving this year … still not someone UK wants to see at the line in crunch-time just yet.
PredictionI think you’ll see/hear Indiana’s wildest crowd in years, fueling their players to jump out to a quick start, possibly even posting a halftime lead on the #1-ranked Wildcats. It won’t surprise me at all to see John Calipari have to use a quick time-out to try to stop a run out of the gates, actually. You cannot overstate the youth of this team, or the fact that it is their first true road game. Last year, a similarly situated Kentucky team lost nearly every time it went on the road before ending up in the Final Four, including losses to lesser-quality opponents with less talent than this year’s Indiana team (e.g. Georgia, Arkansas, Ole Miss). That said, I think this year’s Kentucky team has overall talent than last year’s version, and talent is always a decent trump card. Vegas opened with a line of (-3.5) for Kentucky, which quickly shot up to (-5.5) after the locals placed their wagers at the casinos. Some were shocked by this line, but I’ll repeat what I’ve been preaching for the last month (ask anyone) – this game will be much closer than people think, especially Kentucky fans. Unless IU is just over-hyped and too charged up for this game, which is possible given the goings-on of the past week, I think we’ll see a battle all the way to the final media timeout.
Kentucky 77, Indiana 70.
